Saturday, October 27, 2012

It is happening as the bears forecast

The Canadian banks are now on credit watch from Moody's due to the housing bubble...

'The rating agency is now reviewing the banks because they “face challenges not fully captured in their current ratings,” including concerns about consumer debt levels, housing prices, macro-economic risks and the weight of their capital markets divisions within their business mix."

In layman's terms..the banks have leant too much to people well over their heads in debt, especially in the bubbly housing sector, and too much of the rest of their income comes from professional gambling departments ('Capital markets divisions')

The only one missing from the list was Royal Bank, as it has already been down-graded!

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Sorry for the lack of posts

BUT in case you have a few minutes and don't mind taking some gravol to prevent nausea, here is the bloated face of greed claiming he is not a convicted criminal, is proud to have been in jail, and threatens to beat up the interviewer.

But later he says Ok even if he is a convicted criminal he thinks he should be a Lord and make laws.

He used to love everything US and was down on Canada, now he says the US is corrupt. Poor fellow, you almost feel sorry for him his arrogance reaches delusional proportions.

To use a Britishism...What a complete and utter wanker he is...

Sorry to do this to you

Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Fraser Valley Sept stats

Similar to Vancouver, sales have evaporated - down 20% MOM and 26% YOY.

Over-all Average price down YOY

Detached median down, but average and benchmark are still up YOY.

MOI has moved up briskly to 12

The news release blames the Federal Government's changes.

Friday, October 5, 2012

In Case You Missed it...

The REBGV News release

SFH HPI down 0.5% YOY Down almost 1% MOM
Apartment HPI down 0.7% YOY
Attached HPi down 2.7% YOY

VANCOUVER, BC - The summer of 2012 drew to a close in September with home sale activity well below historical averages in the Greater Vancouver housing market.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales of detached, attached and apartment properties reached 1,516 in September, a 32.5 per cent decline compared to the 2,246 sales in September 2011 and an 8.1 per cent decline compared to the 1,649 sales in August 2012.
September sales were 41.6 per cent below the 10-year September sales average of 2,597.
“There’s been a clear reduction in buyer demand in the three months since the federal government eliminated the availability of a 30-year amortization on government-insured mortgages,” Eugen Klein, REBGV president said. “This makes homes less affordable for the people of the region.”
New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 5,321 in September. This represents a 6.3 per cent decline compared to September 2011 when 5,680 properties were listed for sale on the MLS® and a 31.6 per cent increase compared to the 4,044 new listings in August 2012.
At 18,350, the total number of residential property listings on the MLS® increased 14.1 per cent from this time last year and increased 4.5 per cent compared to August 2012.
“Today, our sales-to-active-listings ratio sits at 8 per cent, which puts us in a buyer’s market. This ratio has been declining in our market since March when it was 19 per cent,” Klein said.
The MLS HPI® composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver is $606,100. This represents a decline of 0.8 per cent compared to this time last year and a decline of 2.3 per cent over last three months.
“Prices in the region remain relatively stable overall, although we do see some reductions in the areas that have had some of the largest price increases over the last year or two,” Klein said.
Sales of detached properties on the MLS® in September 2012 reached 594, a decrease of 37.9 per cent from the 957 detached sales recorded in September 2011, and a 31.4 per cent decrease from the 866 units sold in September 2010. The benchmark price for detached properties decreased 0.5 per cent from September 2011 to $935,600.
Sales of apartment properties reached 676 in September 2012, a 26.7 per cent decrease compared to the 922 sales in September 2011, and a decrease of 30.4 per cent compared to the 971 sales in September 2010. The benchmark price of an apartment property decreased 0.7 per cent from September 2011 to $368,600.
Attached property sales in September 2012 totalled 246, a 33 per cent decrease compared to the 367 sales in September 2011, and a 35.8 per cent decrease from the 383 attached properties sold in September 2010. The benchmark price of an attached unit decreased 2.7 per cent between September 2011 and 2012 to $458,600.
So now that it looks like it is really happening is anyone else getting a teeny bit anxious about it all? Why? for two reasons. The first is that we were here before and the Government shenanigans brought an abrupt end to the correction and re-inflated the bubble. The second is that this correction is starting from even higher levels which means the affect on our economy, Tax receipts, employment, growth etc may be even more significant.
They careful what you wish for in case it comes true!

Monday, October 1, 2012

Larry's numbers are out

Kudos to him once again.

The Average slipped from last month's bounce up. 

But as he also alludes to in his commentary, with sales down 30% from last Sept and inventory being up double digits from last year, things may look better than they really are due to the big sales.

The HPI may tell the story this time, despite all the concerns expressed in many venues regarding it's veracity.